Fueling “angst” among the vulnerable in a fast uncertain and changing world is just as much “a crime” as selling investors US home mortgage bonds and derivative structured investment products, now on its knees. 

Hoping for the worst, not the best. 

For the doomsayers, too often the mission is to own gold and then hope and talk-up the worst i.e negative outcome. That is so much easier and less creative then finding good stocks, which takes real work, visits and analysis.  Mr. Marc Faber, as so many others, hope for the worst and then await that every day. As mostly then the price of gold shines. Vegetables grow either way.

LVT the tournaround condintues with this "Louis Vuitton" stock.  Dared with a strong buy view rating, despite the superb strock price advance of last yer.  Here is the update based on a company visits late last week.

I am given guidance of EPS expected of 0.50 for 2008, fully dilluted. This so is an undemanding dilluted forward p/e of only 4.36! 

A hot afternoon at the office. Steaming some thoughts and alerting you to LVT (2.08) ..my continued tournaround choice and a model portfolio selection.  The new SET leader will likely be ITD, not PTT, when things here recover.

The brave new world of Thai stocks -and why MAI investing has lead to far superior performance results last year.  This will likely continue in 2008.  It is the way forward and where I will focus much of my time and energy.

But the reality is everything in the middle is increasingly being left behind... 

For those investors who now want to take a bit of a contrarian view on the US$ currency and global oil prices -and so think the selling on this stock price is overdone why not take a look at MBAX, around 3 Baht just now.

A slowing of the US economy next year, due to the credit crunch, likely means lower oil prices and commodity prices.  The key now is to own growth companies which are not linked to US consumption or broad Thai exports....

Here I identify some broad risks and make some predictions into the new year. I then draw the conclusions as to why I stand on all legs to my current investor thesis.

MAI stands for Market for Alternative Investing, but the reality is that it has stood for superior investments, and I think this theme will continue in year 2008.  Wake-up and smell the coffee is my message going into year 2008.

Here I review some of the raw stat's on the MAI as the year 2007 comes to a close. The numbers tell it all.

High Net worth invididual Investors the world over have to ask themselves at some point, where should my financial center be? Where in the World is the investment excitment/opportunties likely to most persist? 

Where are transaction costs not excessive -and how to avoid the nasty so called retro-commissions which are designed to enrich the money manager and the bank, not necessarily the client.

TRC has been a prominant choice of mine since earlier this year around 3  Baht per share. Despite the 60% stock price advance since,  I today share with you my latest company visit report and so re-rate TRC with a strongest buy view.

Over the past 10 years, four of all four boom-and-busts have come from the developed West. First, shame on corporate USA for generating it -and then on investor fool EU, for signing-up on it.

 A new global regulatory body should now be established to monitor those Western law making gnomes, who yet once again destabilized the global financial system.

Delighted and exited I here share 2 clear choices on value and earnings explosion stocks as we move into next year. 

Pay attention, as these are my strongest buy views in a long time, re-stated again today.  Today I review one of them in more detail.  Can you hear the table pounding?

SVI PUBLIC COMPANY LIMITED (SVI 1.40)  is confusing to investors. But not due to fundementals, as these appear bright. But due to this H &Q fund, which owns a huge & majority chunk of their stock and potentially selling more into the open market?   This is creating uncertainty and holding the stock price back.     

With the US subprime market now in full crisis and many developed countries' savers getting pulled in some way form or shape, the obvious two questions are: 

 1) Why did the US leaders not see this one coming?    2) What else are they missing? What is the next US silent crisis in the making? 

Here today I dare to raise one issue which I think will in time be a silent bomb.

The Swiss banks have lots of egg on their face having pumped Billions of Dollars worth of subprime bonds to their global investors, at huge bonuses for themselves.  UBS Bank will likely loose more money this year on that they all they earned from all other operations. A huge outcry in Switzerland is in the making.

SNC is planning a formidable road show next week. No question this stock/company is on the go. But how does it compare to my winning selection for long, TRC? Here I address this question with a gloves-off approach.

While I like the SNC story, I am starting to ask if TRC is not a better investment.  If I had to chose, I would go for TRC -and this despite its massive price rise to date,  as I here explain.

Of course I welcome back any critique and will post here any response received, so keep posted.

An open letter to  Khun Terapol Temsuk, Executive Director, TIES, Thai Industrial Engineering Service Public Co.  Where while the company prospects going into next year appear bright, yet the insiders keep selling so to increase the free float.

TIES told me yesterday,  is increasingly optimistic it can increase the aveage project size going into next year. It hopes to secure several 500 mill. Baht projects.

Today, I dare to identify 10 stocks which I think in a years' time, or before, can beat the SET index, along with lower volatility and likely higher cash dividends.  Some of these previous picks already had substantial moves, but I think they have further potential.  Stay tuned.

Earlier this year I here stated I would hesitate publishing more such stock models as they give me headaches' and extra work time in updating and then tracking. Things change, new ideas come to mind and its ever difficult to monitor and then here timely post my changed opinions.

Still, with this handicap at hand, and realizing I might shoot myself in the foot, I today dare to identify 8 stocks which combined I think will do well over the next year, with the SET index at 900

SAT remains one of my top 3 Thai stock picks despite its impressive price rise since I visited this company in February 2008. 

In addition SAT is a near pure play on the explosive growth being experienced in the Gulf state regions of the Middle-East.

In the just previous member article I suggest that in select growth areas of the US, the sub-prime mortgage crisis is not as serious as in others.  I ask the question, with US housing prices coming down will there so not be a time to start considering this as an asset class down the road?

I then pick New Mexico, USA as an interesting growing state which is likely to see its real estate market do well beyond next year, despite the US nations current home dropping prices.  But will it?  In recent years many celebrities have bought million dollar residences in northern Santa Fe and Taos, two thriving & artsy resorts just north of Albuquerque, New Mexico.  A silent boom has been in the making there and the US sub-prime issue has not affected these to date -and probably wont at all.

Next year it is likely many of us will see nice gains in Thai stocks and so some will then ask themselves where to divest some of these profits. Quality Thai art paintings?  US homes in select growth areas?  These are two asset classes which come to my mind. The first one is undervalued to beginn with in my view -and the second one may well be getter there by mid next year.

Many global, as well as Thai stock investors alike now wonder if the US housing mortgage market scandal/correction will kick the wind out of stock-markets far away, like Thailand. A US recession in 2008? 

I continue to think not.  With the Thai elections increasingly closer and the economy likely to resurge next year, I remain broadly bullish on Thai stocks.  I today identify one interesting US city where I believe things are on the up, despite the US housing market slowdown.  

Make sure to see the second part of this article as well called "Drought looming in SW. USA?